2009 Election

This year’s election is over and the incumbents won (both Assembly and School Board)- plus election of the centrist Ruth Danner to the seat vacated by Sara Chambers.

It is reported that 28% of Juneau voted last week, but maybe not. We show almost 25,000 registered voters, and there are not 25,000 adults in Juneau. We add people who newly register, but there is no mechanism for dropping people who leave. Juneau’s population is around 30,000 and according to the census we have about 22% under 18. That leaves 23,400 18 and over. The Census bureau says that in 2000 about 70% of eligible voters were registered to vote. If that were true for Juneau we would have about 16,380 registered voters actually living here. Maybe it is a higher rate for Juneau than for the U.S. as a whole, so let’s bump it up to 17,000. There were 7,091 ballots cast in Juneau which would make turnout around 42% of registered voters and about 30% of the voting age population. [Still not great] Aren’t you glad you know all this? See the precinct by precinct votes at http://www.juneau.org/clerk/elections/documents/2009-10-06-Friday-Results_CBJ_Election_Unofficial.pdf

I was quite pleased to see Ruth Danner win her election, and I am disappointed to hear that some folks (even on the radio) are claiming improprieties in the vote by “the Democratic machine.” Ruth won 54% of the vote. Look at last year. Bob Doll – an active Democrat running against Wade Bryson, a dedicated pro road Republican, won by 55%. Of course there were other races – but many of them swung on issues of personality. Think of Randy Wanamaker vs. Dixie Hood or Johan Dybdahl against Marshall Kendziorek. And maybe this race swung on personality as well. You be the judge.

Also interesting is the letter to the editor by Karen Lawfer in Sunday’s Empire claiming that money doesn’t make a difference in elections. Hmmmmm. http://www.juneauempire.com/stories/101109/let_503563563.shtml
I guarantee you that a newcomer better be ready to raise and spend some money if they want to overcome the name recognition of an incumbent. The fact is that name recognition is still one of the greatest determinants of voting and incumbents have the advantage there. She poo-pooed flyers, mailers and signs – but they put your name out there. As do radio and newspaper ads. The candidate forums reach a few hundred people – maybe more with the broadcast KTOO forum. But you need 3,500 – 4,000 votes to win. Each of us knows a few hundred people, maybe more. You have to convince at about 3,000 people who never heard of you to vote for you. That’s the job of the campaign. [FYI – Incumbents do lose in Juneau. In 2004 Jeff Bush beat incumbent Jeannie Johnson, 2003 Dan Peterson beat incumbent Dale Anderson, 2002 Merrill Sanford beat incumbent Frankie Pillifant]

Next year, Randy Wanamaker in the valley is termed out - so no incumbent. Start thinking about it and talking to people. Contact me if you’d like to chat.

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As far as Monday night’s (10/12) Assembly meeting – I don’t see anything too controversial. We will (probably) pass the Animal Control Ordinance, returning to past ordinance language on competent voice control. We will probably pass an ordinance relaxing zoning for Single Room Occupancy buildings and accessory apartments—hoping to facilitate affordable housing. And we will probably adopt regulations for Downtown Historic District Design Standards Guidelines. Background on all this is found on the agenda page – (follow the Assembly Agenda and Minutes link at right